Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 5104 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 5104 ICT 05:55 → DFW 07:26 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 5372 ICT 14:22 → DFW 15:54 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5104 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ICT 05:55	DFW 07:26	12%	7%	2.3%	86%
AA 4142 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ICT 11:25	DFW 12:50	14%	4%	1.7%	83%
MQ 4032 Envoy	ICT 09:33	DFW 11:01	17%	4%	1.7%	no record
OO 6217 SkyWest	ICT 08:25	DFW 09:52	18%	9%	1.3%	no record
AA 3691 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ICT 19:00	DFW 20:26	22%	7%	2.1%	64%
OO 6236 SkyWest	ICT 19:45	DFW 21:11	26%	11%	0.8%	no record
AA 5372 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ICT 14:22	DFW 15:54	26%	12%	1.9%	87%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON