Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 16–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day C5 4248 ICT 06:30 → IAH 08:26 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4552 ICT 15:31 → IAH 17:37 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


C5 4248 CommuteAir	ICT 06:30	IAH 08:26	16%	6%	1.9%	no record
C5 4338 CommuteAir	ICT 13:00	IAH 14:56	18%	6%	1.4%	no record
UA 4838 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	ICT 09:00	IAH 10:56	18%	5%	1.6%	95%worse than usual
G7 4510 GoJet	ICT 17:06	IAH 19:06	22%	9%	1.6%	no record
G7 4552 GoJet	ICT 15:31	IAH 17:37	22%	8%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON