tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2152 at 12:40 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2152 Southwest ICT 12:40 LAS 13:25 19% 5% 0.6% no record
G4 69 Allegiant ICT 13:29 LAS 14:13 30% 12% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Wichita). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ICT 06:08 → DEN 06:53UA 5355 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m Denver DEN 08:05 → LAS 09:07UA 2316 4h 59m 93% 84%
DeltaDetails → ICT 05:43 → ATL 08:54DL 2216 1h 01m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 7h 17m 95% 79%
UnitedDetails → ICT 09:00 → IAH 10:56UA 4838 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 24m Houston IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971 8h 37m 100% 71%
DeltaDetails → ICT 11:11 → ATL 14:26DL 1637 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 16:42 → LAS 17:52DL 659 8h 41m 98% 67%
AmericanDetails → ICT 05:55 → DFW 07:26AA 5104 · flown by PSA 1h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:49 → LAS 09:38AA 1550 5h 43m 93% 67%
UnitedDetails → ICT 07:25 → ORD 09:35UA 786 1h 19m Chicago ORD 10:54 → LAS 12:43UA 1803 7h 18m 94% 64%
AlaskaDetails → ICT 15:08 → SEA 16:56AS 2117 · flown by Horizon 3h 19m Seattle SEA 20:15 → LAS 22:55AS 704 9h 47m 100% 61%
DeltaDetails → ICT 15:47 → MSP 17:35DL 3807 · flown by SkyWest 1h 24m Minneapolis MSP 18:59 → LAS 20:20DL 2246 6h 33m 87% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ICT 19:00 → DFW 20:26AA 3691 · flown by Envoy 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:18 → LAS 22:23AA 2371 5h 23m 73% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON