Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2150 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2150 Southwest	ICT 05:00	MDW 06:57	3%	2%	1.3%	no record
WN 2151 Southwest	ICT 16:05	MDW 18:03	27%	10%	2.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ICT 05:43 → ATL 08:54DL 2216	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 13m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	ICT 11:11 → ATL 14:26DL 1637	49m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	5h 04m	83%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON