Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: OO 3782 at 07:21 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OO 3782 SkyWest	ICT 07:21	MSP 09:09	8%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 3807 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 15:47	MSP 17:35	18%	6%	0.6%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ICT 06:08 → DEN 06:53UA 5355 · flown by SkyWest	2h 47m Denver	DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397	6h 32m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	ICT 05:43 → ATL 08:54DL 2216	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	8h 07m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	ICT 11:11 → ATL 14:26DL 1637	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654	7h 07m	98%	73%
United Details →	ICT 09:00 → IAH 10:56UA 4838 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 52m Houston	IAH 14:48 → MSP 17:49UA 1818	8h 49m	100%	72%
United Details →	ICT 07:25 → ORD 09:35UA 786	3h 24m Chicago	ORD 12:59 → MSP 14:41UA 467	7h 16m	98%	69%
Alaska Details →	ICT 15:08 → SEA 16:56AS 2117 · flown by Horizon	1h 44m Seattle	SEA 18:40 → MSP 23:55AS 527	8h 47m	95%	67%
American Details →	ICT 11:25 → DFW 12:50AA 4142 · flown by Envoy	3h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:04 → MSP 18:42AA 2406	7h 17m	100%	65%
Delta Details →	ICT 18:32 → ATL 22:00DL 2128	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	6h 07m	85%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON