Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4043 at 06:43 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 42–48%.

Safest bet that day AA 4043 ICT 06:43 → ORD 08:46 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest OO 5001 ICT 18:07 → ORD 20:08 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4043 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ICT 06:43	ORD 08:46	10%	4%	1.6%	92%
UA 786 United Flight history →	ICT 07:25	ORD 09:35	12%	6%	1.5%	86%
UA 5810 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 10:57	ORD 13:10	21%	10%	2.2%	80%
G7 4555 GoJet	ICT 14:44	ORD 16:41	41%	19%	5.3%	no record
G7 4558 GoJet	ICT 18:23	ORD 20:32	42%	24%	5.3%	no record
OO 6287 SkyWest	ICT 14:06	ORD 16:11	42%	23%	6.2%	no record
OO 5001 SkyWest	ICT 18:07	ORD 20:08	48%	24%	6.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON