Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 06:08, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Seattle on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 2117 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	ICT 15:08	SEA 16:56	23%	7%	1.8%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Wichita). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ICT 05:43 → ATL 08:54DL 2216	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	11h 07m	100%	79%
United Details →	ICT 06:08 → DEN 06:53UA 5355 · flown by SkyWest	1h 06m Denver	DEN 07:59 → SEA 09:48UA 1348	5h 40m	92%	73%
Delta Details →	ICT 11:11 → ATL 14:26DL 1637	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	9h 54m	98%	68%
American Details →	ICT 05:55 → DFW 07:26AA 5104 · flown by PSA	3h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:45 → SEA 13:03AA 717	9h 08m	94%	62%
Delta Details →	ICT 15:47 → MSP 17:35DL 3807 · flown by SkyWest	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 18:55 → SEA 20:48DL 881	7h 01m	87%	61%
United Details →	ICT 07:25 → ORD 09:35UA 786	3h 55m Chicago	ORD 13:30 → SEA 16:09UA 1660	10h 44m	98%	61%
American Details →	ICT 06:43 → ORD 08:46AA 4043 · flown by Envoy	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 10:01 → SEA 12:32AA 2966	7h 49m	92%	60%
American Details →	ICT 11:25 → DFW 12:50AA 4142 · flown by Envoy	1h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:33 → SEA 16:47AA 727	7h 22m	96%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON