Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 4706 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–40%.

Safest bet that day UA 4706 IDA 07:00 → DEN 08:55 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 2155 IDA 14:30 → DEN 16:18 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4706 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IDA 07:00	DEN 08:55	8%	6%	0.8%	90%
UA 5793 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IDA 10:35	DEN 12:28	15%	7%	1.9%	88%
UA 5551 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IDA 17:54	DEN 19:45	33%	15%	1.5%	72%
UA 5666 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IDA 16:14	DEN 18:05	40%	16%	1.3%	69%
UA 2155 United Flight history →	IDA 14:30	DEN 16:18	43%	16%	1.9%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON