tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, OO 5009 at 13:52, with a 45% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 5009 SkyWest IDA 13:52 ORD 18:00 45% 23% 4.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Idaho Falls). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → IDA 06:11 → SEA 07:07AS 3423 · flown by SkyWest 1h 27m Seattle SEA 08:34 → ORD 14:46AS 265 7h 35m 100% 68%
DeltaDetails → IDA 06:00 → SLC 07:04DL 2335 46m Salt Lake City SLC 07:50 → ORD 12:00DL 2247 5h 00m 81% 66%
UnitedDetails → IDA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 4706 · flown by SkyWest 2h 20m Denver DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865 6h 55m 97% 66%
AlaskaDetails → IDA 13:52 → SEA 14:47AS 3027 · flown by SkyWest 3h 01m Seattle SEA 17:48 → ORD 23:59AS 538 9h 07m 98% 61%
UnitedDetails → IDA 16:14 → DEN 18:05UA 5666 · flown by SkyWest 2h 31m Denver DEN 20:36 → ORD 00:03 +1UA 377 6h 49m 91% 56%
AmericanDetails → IDA 07:00 → DFW 11:00AA 6466 · flown by SkyWest 2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:10 → ORD 15:51AA 2988 7h 51m 95% 53%
UnitedDetails → IDA 10:35 → DEN 12:28UA 5793 · flown by SkyWest 57m Denver DEN 13:25 → ORD 17:05UA 617 5h 30m 84% 48%
DeltaDetails → IDA 13:00 → SLC 14:12DL 3765 · flown by SkyWest 3h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 17:21 → ORD 21:29DL 2413 7h 29m 97% 46%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IDA 16:14 → DEN 18:05UA 5666 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m Denver DEN 19:17 → ORD 22:50UA 2258 5h 36m 69% 37%
UnitedDetails → IDA 17:54 → DEN 19:45UA 5551 · flown by SkyWest 51m Denver DEN 20:36 → ORD 00:03 +1UA 377 5h 09m 53% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON