tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, OO 3322 at 15:59, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 3322 SkyWest IDA 15:59 PDX 16:52 18% 9% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h behind Idaho Falls). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IDA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 4706 · flown by SkyWest 2h 32m Denver DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644 7h 09m 98% 80%
AlaskaDetails → IDA 06:11 → SEA 07:07AS 3423 · flown by SkyWest 1h 33m Seattle SEA 08:40 → PDX 09:39AS 279 4h 28m 100% 77%
AlaskaDetails → IDA 13:52 → SEA 14:47AS 3027 · flown by SkyWest 3h 12m Seattle SEA 17:59 → PDX 18:56AS 2302 · flown by Horizon 6h 04m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → IDA 13:00 → SLC 14:12DL 3765 · flown by SkyWest 3h 13m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238 6h 18m 97% 69%
UnitedDetails → IDA 10:35 → DEN 12:28UA 5793 · flown by SkyWest 59m Denver DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455 5h 38m 85% 66%
UnitedDetails → IDA 16:14 → DEN 18:05UA 5666 · flown by SkyWest 3h 25m Denver DEN 21:30 → PDX 23:13UA 1770 7h 59m 94% 60%
UnitedDetails → IDA 14:30 → DEN 16:18UA 2155 3h 12m Denver DEN 19:30 → PDX 21:15UA 498 7h 45m 85% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON