tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AS 3423 at 06:11 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 3423 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → IDA 06:11 SEA 07:07 12% 6% 0.9% 84%
AS 3027 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → IDA 13:52 SEA 14:47 33% 9% 2.8% 81%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 1 h behind Idaho Falls). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IDA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 4706 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m Denver DEN 11:31 → SEA 13:35UA 2058 7h 35m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → IDA 06:00 → SLC 07:04DL 2335 46m Salt Lake City SLC 07:50 → SEA 09:02DL 2874 4h 02m 81% 68%
UnitedDetails → IDA 10:35 → DEN 12:28UA 5793 · flown by SkyWest 1h 34m Denver DEN 14:02 → SEA 15:53UA 2833 6h 18m 91% 57%
DeltaDetails → IDA 13:00 → SLC 14:12DL 3765 · flown by SkyWest 3h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871 6h 33m 97% 56%
UnitedDetails → IDA 16:14 → DEN 18:05UA 5666 · flown by SkyWest 3h 05m Denver DEN 21:10 → SEA 23:10UA 2651 7h 56m 93% 52%
UnitedDetails → IDA 14:30 → DEN 16:18UA 2155 2h 53m Denver DEN 19:11 → SEA 21:00UA 2767 7h 30m 84% 38%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IDA 16:14 → DEN 18:05UA 5666 · flown by SkyWest 1h 06m Denver DEN 19:11 → SEA 21:00UA 2767 5h 46m 64% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON