Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4786 at 12:45 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 4786 Republic	ILM 12:45	BOS 15:12	12%	7%	2.6%	no record
B6 1290 JetBlue Flight history →	ILM 14:31	BOS 16:40	28%	14%	1.8%	60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ILM 05:48 → ATL 07:17DL 3187	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855	6h 57m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	ILM 06:50 → LGA 08:36DL 5237 · flown by Endeavor	2h 24m New York	LGA 11:00 → BOS 12:22DL 5745 · flown by Republic	5h 32m	98%	85%
American Details →	ILM 04:59 → CLT 06:10AA 2960	3h 31m Charlotte	CLT 09:41 → BOS 11:53AA 2263	6h 54m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	ILM 10:29 → ATL 12:01DL 376	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 13:58 → BOS 16:44DL 726	6h 15m	100%	81%
American Details →	ILM 08:01 → PHL 09:45AA 6081 · flown by Piedmont	3h 54m Philadelphia	PHL 13:39 → BOS 14:54AA 3186	6h 53m	99%	75%
American Details →	ILM 06:52 → CLT 08:04AA 2695	3h 16m Charlotte	CLT 11:20 → BOS 13:32AA 885	6h 40m	92%	75%
Delta Details →	ILM 11:30 → LGA 13:26DL 5186 · flown by Endeavor	3h 34m New York	LGA 17:00 → BOS 18:40DL 5725 · flown by Republic	7h 10m	97%	74%
American Details →	ILM 15:25 → DCA 16:54AA 5313 · flown by PSA	2h 06m Washington	DCA 19:00 → BOS 20:42AA 4668 · flown by Republic	5h 17m	94%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ILM 17:20 → LGA 19:11DL 5212 · flown by Endeavor	49m New York	LGA 20:00 → BOS 21:14DL 5800 · flown by Republic	3h 54m	58%	40%
American Details →	ILM 16:15 → CLT 17:38AA 5823 · flown by Piedmont	56m Charlotte	CLT 18:34 → BOS 20:59AA 2595	4h 44m	57%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON