Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2960 at 04:59 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 2960 ILM 04:59 → CLT 06:10 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2105 ILM 19:43 → CLT 20:54 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 2960 American Flight history →	ILM 04:59	CLT 06:10	10%	4%	1.9%	90%
AA 2695 American Flight history →	ILM 06:52	CLT 08:04	13%	4%	2.2%	94%
AA 5604 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ILM 12:48	CLT 14:02	16%	5%	3.6%	89%
AA 2413 American	ILM 14:45	CLT 15:58	23%	7%	3.1%	no record
AA 2105 American Flight history →	ILM 19:43	CLT 20:54	30%	11%	3.2%	79%
AA 5820 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 11:04	CLT 12:24	13%	2%	0.0%	87%
AA 5809 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 14:44	CLT 16:06	22%	10%	0.0%	78%
AA 6116 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 18:06	CLT 19:29	32%	22%	1.4%	68%
AA 5823 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 16:15	CLT 17:38	42%	21%	0.0%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON