Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 3415 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


MQ 3415 Envoy	ILM 06:55	DFW 09:03	15%	4%	1.5%	no record
MQ 4016 Envoy	ILM 16:25	DFW 18:35	30%	10%	3.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Wilmington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ILM 05:48 → ATL 07:17DL 3187	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12DL 961	6h 24m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	ILM 06:52 → LGA 08:36DL 5237 · flown by Endeavor	3h 53m New York	LGA 12:29 → DFW 15:10DL 869	9h 18m	97%	78%
American Details →	ILM 04:59 → CLT 06:10AA 2960	3h 15m Charlotte	CLT 09:25 → DFW 11:12AA 575	7h 13m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	ILM 10:29 → ATL 12:01DL 376	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → DFW 15:45DL 921	6h 16m	100%	73%
American Details →	ILM 06:52 → CLT 08:04AA 2695	3h 10m Charlotte	CLT 11:14 → DFW 13:07AA 2747	7h 15m	91%	69%
Delta Details →	ILM 11:11 → LGA 12:55DL 5186 · flown by Endeavor	2h 05m New York	LGA 15:00 → DFW 18:01DL 846	7h 50m	92%	67%
Delta Details →	ILM 18:48 → ATL 20:35DL 1292	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818	6h 25m	91%	66%
American Details →	ILM 12:48 → CLT 14:02AA 5604 · flown by PSA	3h 14m Charlotte	CLT 17:16 → DFW 19:08AA 3209	7h 20m	100%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ILM 12:25 → ORD 14:02AA 3970 · flown by Envoy	1h 08m Chicago	ORD 15:10 → DFW 17:48AA 2429	6h 23m	67%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON