Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:48, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ILM 05:48 → ATL 07:17DL 3187	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 08:18 → EWR 10:29DL 2397	4h 41m	93%	83%
American Details →	ILM 04:59 → CLT 06:10AA 2960	1h 49m Charlotte	CLT 07:59 → EWR 09:50AA 1707	4h 51m	93%	78%
American Details →	ILM 06:52 → CLT 08:04AA 2695	2h 26m Charlotte	CLT 10:30 → EWR 12:21AA 1697	5h 29m	92%	72%
Delta Details →	ILM 10:29 → ATL 12:01DL 376	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340	7h 25m	100%	65%
Delta Details →	ILM 18:48 → ATL 20:35DL 1292	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552	6h 10m	90%	60%
American Details →	ILM 12:48 → CLT 14:02AA 5604 · flown by PSA	2h 45m Charlotte	CLT 16:47 → EWR 18:54AA 1330	6h 06m	96%	58%
Delta Details →	ILM 14:28 → ATL 16:05DL 731	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 18:35 → EWR 20:54DL 2498	6h 26m	91%	57%
American Details →	ILM 14:44 → CLT 16:06AA 5809 · flown by Piedmont	3h 01m Charlotte	CLT 19:07 → EWR 21:14AA 997	6h 30m	95%	55%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ILM 16:15 → CLT 17:38AA 5823 · flown by Piedmont	1h 29m Charlotte	CLT 19:07 → EWR 21:14AA 997	4h 59m	73%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON