Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 5237 at 06:52 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 5237 ILM 06:52 → LGA 08:36 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 5212 ILM 17:16 → LGA 19:00 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5237 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ILM 06:52	LGA 08:36	10%	3%	2.3%	95%
YX 4401 Republic	ILM 10:08	LGA 12:01	12%	5%	2.1%	no record
DL 5186 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ILM 11:11	LGA 12:55	18%	4%	2.3%	76%
YX 4404 Republic	ILM 18:16	LGA 20:17	24%	13%	4.1%	no record
DL 5212 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ILM 17:16	LGA 19:00	27%	11%	3.9%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON