Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, MQ 3845 at 05:56, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 3845 Envoy	ILM 05:56	MIA 07:58	11%	5%	1.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ILM 05:48 → ATL 07:17DL 3187	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 09m	94%	78%
American Details →	ILM 04:59 → CLT 06:10AA 2960	55m Charlotte	CLT 07:05 → MIA 09:12AA 770	4h 13m	90%	73%
Delta Details →	ILM 18:48 → ATL 20:35DL 1292	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 07m	92%	64%
Delta Details →	ILM 06:50 → LGA 08:36DL 5237 · flown by Endeavor	2h 39m New York	LGA 11:15 → MIA 14:24DL 1538	7h 34m	98%	63%
American Details →	ILM 06:52 → CLT 08:04AA 2695	2h 58m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	6h 19m	92%	61%
Delta Details →	ILM 10:29 → ATL 12:01DL 376	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386	6h 26m	100%	60%
American Details →	ILM 18:06 → CLT 19:29AA 6116 · flown by Piedmont	3h 18m Charlotte	CLT 22:47 → MIA 00:48 +1AA 3068	6h 42m	99%	60%
Delta Details →	ILM 14:28 → ATL 16:05DL 731	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 19:53 → MIA 21:59DL 1588	7h 31m	97%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ILM 19:20 → PHL 21:06AA 5816 · flown by Piedmont	49m Philadelphia	PHL 21:55 → MIA 00:52 +1AA 2936	5h 32m	64%	36%
American Details →	ILM 16:15 → CLT 17:38AA 5823 · flown by Piedmont	1h 05m Charlotte	CLT 18:43 → MIA 20:53AA 400	4h 38m	61%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON