Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4442 at 09:32 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33–44%.

Safest bet that day YX 4442 ILM 09:32 → ORD 11:14 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 4020 ILM 17:39 → ORD 19:27 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4442 Republic	ILM 09:32	ORD 11:14	11%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 3970 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ILM 12:25	ORD 14:01	33%	13%	3.9%	89%worse than usual
MQ 4020 Envoy	ILM 17:39	ORD 19:27	44%	23%	5.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON