Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 3105 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 3105 IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 2979 IND 18:37 → ATL 20:27 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3105 Delta Flight history →	IND 05:55	ATL 07:30	5%	2%	0.7%	96%
DL 3125 Delta Flight history →	IND 10:35	ATL 12:25	7%	2%	0.7%	96%
DL 3106 Delta Flight history →	IND 06:55	ATL 08:36	7%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 2952 Delta Flight history →	IND 11:38	ATL 13:17	8%	2%	0.7%	95%
DL 1901 Delta Flight history →	IND 08:05	ATL 09:41	10%	2%	0.8%	96%
DL 3013 Delta Flight history →	IND 13:41	ATL 15:20	13%	3%	0.7%	87%
DL 3134 Delta Flight history →	IND 16:42	ATL 18:32	18%	4%	0.9%	87%
WN 2146 Southwest	IND 16:30	ATL 18:21	19%	7%	0.6%	no record
DL 3120 Delta Flight history →	IND 20:00	ATL 21:50	20%	5%	1.0%	82%
DL 2979 Delta Flight history →	IND 18:37	ATL 20:27	21%	5%	1.0%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON