Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 425 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 425 IND 06:05 → AUS 07:53 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1335 IND 21:25 → AUS 23:15 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 425 Southwest	IND 06:05	AUS 07:53	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 4015 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IND 07:25	AUS 09:03	8%	3%	0.5%	90%
DL 4101 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IND 11:34	AUS 13:13	13%	5%	0.6%	90%
WN 701 Southwest	IND 12:45	AUS 14:35	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 4027 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IND 18:30	AUS 20:14	23%	8%	1.0%	81%
WN 1335 Southwest	IND 21:25	AUS 23:15	28%	9%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON