tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2157 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2157 Southwest IND 06:55 BNA 07:11 4% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 2158 Southwest IND 18:10 BNA 18:26 29% 11% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 6210 · flown by Mesa 1h 11m Dulles IAD 08:30 → BNA 09:29UA 1366 4h 54m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → BNA 09:50DL 1155 4h 55m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 35m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:47 → DTW 09:03DL 4897 · flown by Endeavor 3h 22m Detroit DTW 12:25 → BNA 13:03DL 1557 6h 16m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → IND 07:18 → ORD 07:39UA 3483 · flown by Republic 2h 58m Chicago ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414 6h 11m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → IND 10:11 → IAD 11:55UA 3709 · flown by Republic 55m Dulles IAD 12:50 → BNA 13:49UA 213 4h 38m 93% 81%
AmericanDetails → IND 06:42 → CLT 08:25AA 2938 3h 00m Charlotte CLT 11:25 → BNA 11:55AA 2409 6h 13m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → IND 16:32 → MSP 17:21DL 2910 2h 59m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → BNA 22:26DL 1144 6h 54m 100% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → IND 15:47 → CLT 17:30AA 1589 46m Charlotte CLT 18:16 → BNA 18:42AA 2402 3h 55m 50% 33%
UnitedDetails → IND 15:45 → DEN 16:41UA 377 49m Denver DEN 17:30 → BNA 21:13UA 1300 6h 28m 52% 30%
AmericanDetails → IND 17:44 → DFW 19:18AA 2456 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:15 → BNA 22:10AA 1500 5h 26m 46% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON