Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 5631 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22%.

Safest bet that day DL 5631 IND 06:45 → BOS 09:10 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest YX 5623 IND 18:00 → BOS 20:28 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5631 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 06:45	BOS 09:10	4%	2%	0.6%	94%
YX 4408 Republic	IND 08:49	BOS 11:17	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
G4 593 Allegiant	IND 06:00	BOS 08:21	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 5628 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 12:40	BOS 15:10	9%	4%	0.6%	91%
YX 4405 Republic	IND 13:59	BOS 16:27	14%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 4726 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 18:35	BOS 20:59	22%	9%	1.5%	70%
YX 5623 Republic	IND 18:00	BOS 20:28	22%	10%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON