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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Southwest via Denver, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → IND 06:15 → DEN 07:03WN 2787 1h 32m Denver DEN 08:35 → BUR 10:10WN 1733 6h 55m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:55 → SLC 09:26DL 2137 1h 19m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 6h 59m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → IND 08:00 → DEN 08:51UA 1607 2h 24m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 7h 48m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483 10h 00m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → IND 06:00 → SFO 07:42UA 500 51m San Francisco SFO 08:33 → BUR 09:57UA 2363 6h 57m 85% 72%
AmericanDetails → IND 06:01 → DFW 07:35AA 2782 2h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:16 → BUR 11:34AA 1208 8h 33m 99% 69%
AlaskaDetails → IND 07:04 → SEA 08:52AS 625 1h 21m Seattle SEA 10:13 → BUR 12:48AS 1395 8h 44m 94% 64%
UnitedDetails → IND 15:45 → DEN 16:41UA 377 2h 32m Denver DEN 19:13 → BUR 20:43UA 2411 7h 58m 98% 52%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → IND 17:44 → DFW 19:18AA 2456 1h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:46 → BUR 21:58AA 2597 7h 14m 74% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON