tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2161 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2161 Southwest IND 06:25 DAL 07:48 3% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 1454 Southwest IND 19:30 DAL 20:55 31% 11% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → IND 06:15 → DEN 07:03WN 2787 57m Denver DEN 08:00 → DAL 11:00WN 3962 5h 45m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115 6h 29m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → IND 10:35 → ATL 12:25DL 3125 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512 5h 28m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → IND 11:38 → ATL 13:17DL 2952 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780 7h 16m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → IND 16:42 → ATL 18:32DL 3134 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104 6h 43m 96% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → IND 18:37 → ATL 20:27DL 2979 48m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104 4h 48m 56% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON