Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4407 at 09:23 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 4407 IND 09:23 → DCA 11:18 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time Riskiest AA 4593 IND 20:31 → DCA 22:25 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4407 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 09:23	DCA 11:18	5%	2%	0.9%	52%
AA 4352 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 08:02	DCA 09:48	6%	2%	0.8%	84%
OH 5587 PSA	IND 14:36	DCA 16:36	16%	8%	2.0%	no record
AA 4452 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 17:05	DCA 19:07	18%	7%	2.1%	71%
AA 4593 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 20:31	DCA 22:25	22%	7%	2.9%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON