Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2787 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 2787 IND 06:15 → DEN 07:03 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest UA 1229 IND 18:52 → DEN 19:45 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2787 Southwest Flight history →	IND 06:15	DEN 07:03	3%	1%	0.5%	76%
WN 2164 Southwest	IND 11:11	DEN 11:42	8%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1607 United Flight history →	IND 08:00	DEN 08:51	9%	3%	0.7%	84%
F9 2347 Frontier Flight history →	IND 21:03	DEN 21:59	30%	8%	1.2%	79%
UA 377 United Flight history →	IND 15:45	DEN 16:41	31%	11%	0.7%	85%worse than usual
WN 2165 Southwest	IND 15:50	DEN 16:40	34%	9%	0.6%	no record
F9 2345 Frontier Flight history →	IND 16:00	DEN 16:57	36%	12%	0.8%	79%worse than usual
WN 3738 Southwest	IND 19:25	DEN 20:14	37%	10%	1.1%	no record
UA 1229 United	IND 18:52	DEN 19:45	38%	12%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON