Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 262 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 262 Southwest	IND 05:35	HOU 07:10	3%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 4794 Southwest	IND 20:35	HOU 22:12	25%	7%	1.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 08:41 → HOU 09:45DL 1509	4h 50m	96%	84%
Southwest Details →	IND 06:15 → DEN 07:03WN 2787	47m Denver	DEN 07:50 → HOU 11:19WN 1355	6h 04m	91%	83%
Delta Details →	IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	6h 15m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	IND 10:35 → ATL 12:25DL 3125	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	6h 47m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	IND 16:42 → ATL 18:32DL 3134	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	6h 09m	94%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON