Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4601 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 4601 IND 05:59 → LGA 08:15 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest DL 5646 IND 17:55 → LGA 20:11 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4601 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 05:59	LGA 08:15	3%	1%	1.1%	71%
DL 5737 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 06:09	LGA 08:25	3%	2%	1.1%	92%
AA 4365 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 08:52	LGA 11:10	6%	3%	1.3%	100%
DL 5660 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 08:05	LGA 10:12	7%	3%	1.3%	87%
AA 4565 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 12:25	LGA 14:44	11%	5%	1.7%	83%
DL 5642 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 14:46	LGA 16:57	15%	7%	1.5%	84%
YX 4409 Republic	IND 17:24	LGA 19:45	18%	8%	1.7%	no record
DL 5646 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 17:55	LGA 20:11	20%	8%	1.8%	72%
DL 4883 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	IND 11:10	LGA 13:14	24%	4%	6.2%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON