tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1037 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1037 Southwest IND 07:25 MCI 08:08 4% 2% 2.2% no record
WN 2174 Southwest IND 18:15 MCI 18:59 25% 10% 1.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757 2h 08m Minneapolis MSP 09:57 → MCI 11:29DL 1349 5h 29m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → MCI 11:11DL 2908 6h 16m 99% 84%
SouthwestDetails → IND 06:15 → DEN 07:03WN 2787 3h 39m Denver DEN 10:42 → MCI 13:26WN 2512 8h 11m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:13DL 2747 6h 18m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:52 → DTW 09:05DL 4897 · flown by Endeavor 3h 20m Detroit DTW 12:25 → MCI 13:24DL 2741 6h 32m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → IND 08:05 → ATL 09:41DL 1901 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443 7h 24m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:55 → SLC 09:26DL 2137 1h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882 7h 02m 94% 79%
AmericanDetails → IND 06:42 → CLT 08:25AA 2938 3h 03m Charlotte CLT 11:28 → MCI 13:00AA 3233 7h 18m 97% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → IND 17:44 → DFW 19:18AA 2456 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:18 → MCI 22:13AA 595 5h 29m 61% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON