Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2175 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 2175 IND 05:15 → MCO 07:36 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 636 IND 18:00 → MCO 20:21 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2175 Southwest	IND 05:15	MCO 07:36	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2176 Southwest	IND 10:00	MCO 12:22	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
F9 3762 Frontier Flight history →	IND 10:16	MCO 12:45	15%	6%	1.2%	84%
WN 4838 Southwest	IND 12:45	MCO 15:06	21%	7%	1.6%	no record
WN 3261 Southwest	IND 21:50	MCO 00:11	25%	8%	0.8%	no record
WN 2178 Southwest	IND 15:35	MCO 17:56	27%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 636 Southwest	IND 18:00	MCO 20:21	32%	13%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON