Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2308 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 48%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2308 American Flight history →	IND 06:00	MIA 08:50	9%	3%	1.0%	92%
AA 2862 American	IND 19:18	MIA 22:05	48%	15%	2.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 6210 · flown by Mesa	1h 26m Dulles	IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073	6h 00m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 02m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	IND 06:40 → DTW 07:55DL 4924 · flown by Endeavor	1h 27m Detroit	DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468	5h 48m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757	1h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 09:07 → MIA 13:41DL 793	6h 41m	97%	76%
American Details →	IND 05:59 → LGA 08:15AA 4601 · flown by Republic	1h 13m New York	LGA 09:28 → MIA 12:45AA 3211	6h 46m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332	6h 12m	99%	71%
Delta Details →	IND 18:37 → ATL 20:27DL 2979	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 18m	97%	69%
American Details →	IND 06:42 → ORD 07:09AA 4557 · flown by Republic	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 08:30 → MIA 12:45AA 1250	6h 03m	99%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IND 17:44 → DFW 19:18AA 2456	1h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:42 → MIA 00:37 +1AA 2090	6h 53m	67%	36%
American Details →	IND 16:49 → PHL 18:49AA 5592 · flown by PSA	54m Philadelphia	PHL 19:43 → MIA 22:29AA 2132	5h 40m	70%	36%
American Details →	IND 19:00 → PHL 21:05AA 3015	50m Philadelphia	PHL 21:55 → MIA 00:52 +1AA 2936	5h 52m	59%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON