Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 5892 at 05:49 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 40–47%.

Safest bet that day OO 5892 IND 05:49 → ORD 06:09 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2418 IND 20:46 → ORD 21:11 · 47% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5892 SkyWest	IND 05:49	ORD 06:09	6%	3%	1.5%	no record
AA 4557 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 06:42	ORD 07:11	8%	2%	0.9%	73%
YX 3495 Republic	IND 08:11	ORD 08:40	8%	3%	0.9%	no record
YX 4412 Republic	IND 10:27	ORD 10:56	8%	4%	1.0%	no record
UA 3483 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 07:18	ORD 07:41	11%	3%	0.9%	79%
YX 3561 Republic	IND 11:34	ORD 12:03	13%	5%	1.0%	no record
OO 5287 SkyWest	IND 09:21	ORD 09:45	17%	5%	1.6%	no record
AA 3907 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	IND 11:52	ORD 12:13	19%	5%	1.0%	79%
YX 3527 Republic	IND 15:08	ORD 15:44	29%	13%	2.8%	no record
YX 4454 Republic	IND 14:26	ORD 14:55	30%	11%	1.9%	no record
UA 2632 United	IND 13:46	ORD 14:09	36%	12%	1.9%	no record
UA 3657 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 18:44	ORD 19:12	40%	17%	4.7%	76%worse than usual
AA 630 American	IND 13:13	ORD 13:30	40%	11%	3.3%	no record
UA 1087 United	IND 16:55	ORD 17:18	42%	19%	2.3%	no record
AA 2418 American	IND 20:46	ORD 21:11	47%	18%	5.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON