Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4683 at 08:21 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–35%.

Safest bet that day YX 4683 IND 08:21 → PHL 10:19 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3015 IND 19:00 → PHL 21:05 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4683 Republic	IND 08:21	PHL 10:19	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
YX 4618 Republic	IND 11:24	PHL 13:38	8%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 2847 American Flight history →	IND 07:00	PHL 08:55	10%	3%	0.9%	87%
AA 5240 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IND 13:36	PHL 15:37	19%	9%	1.7%	81%
AA 5592 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IND 16:49	PHL 18:49	24%	11%	2.2%	69%
AA 3015 American Flight history →	IND 19:00	PHL 21:05	35%	12%	2.1%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON