Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4882 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 4882 IND 05:45 → PHX 06:34 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1453 IND 18:49 → PHX 19:41 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4882 Southwest	IND 05:45	PHX 06:34	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2184 Southwest	IND 12:20	PHX 13:10	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2026 American Flight history →	IND 08:09	PHX 08:58	20%	5%	0.7%	93%worse than usual
WN 2185 Southwest	IND 21:10	PHX 21:42	31%	11%	0.8%	no record
AA 1453 American	IND 18:49	PHX 19:41	43%	16%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON