tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 4780 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record IND 14:40 RDU 16:25 24% 16% 2.0% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → RDU 11:38DL 2052 5h 43m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488 5h 47m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → IND 06:40 → DTW 07:55DL 4924 · flown by Endeavor 2h 20m Detroit DTW 10:15 → RDU 11:57DL 2164 5h 17m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 3997 · flown by Mesa 58m Dulles IAD 08:17 → RDU 09:32UA 203 3h 57m 97% 88%
AmericanDetails → IND 07:10 → JFK 09:29AA 4631 · flown by Republic 3h 26m New York JFK 12:55 → RDU 14:53AA 4658 · flown by Republic 7h 43m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → IND 06:42 → ORD 07:09AA 4557 · flown by Republic 1h 09m Chicago ORD 08:18 → RDU 11:38AA 4354 · flown by Republic 4h 56m 97% 88%
AmericanDetails → IND 08:52 → LGA 11:10AA 4365 · flown by Republic 2h 23m New York LGA 13:33 → RDU 15:22AA 4749 · flown by Republic 6h 30m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → IND 08:05 → ATL 09:41DL 1901 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 13:05 → RDU 14:30DL 2026 6h 25m 100% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → IND 15:47 → CLT 17:30AA 1589 58m Charlotte CLT 18:28 → RDU 19:31AA 1904 3h 44m 70% 47%
UnitedDetails → IND 15:45 → DEN 16:41UA 377 1h 04m Denver DEN 17:45 → RDU 23:16UA 2671 7h 31m 74% 42%
AmericanDetails → IND 17:44 → DFW 19:18AA 2456 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:04 → RDU 23:48AA 542 6h 04m 0% 0%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON