tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4050 at 08:38 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4050 Southwest IND 08:38 RSW 11:29 9% 3% 0.8% no record
WN 2206 Southwest IND 20:25 RSW 23:00 32% 12% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 3997 · flown by Mesa 56m Dulles IAD 08:15 → RSW 10:53UA 1406 5h 18m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757 1h 16m Minneapolis MSP 09:05 → RSW 13:27DL 2400 6h 27m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → IND 06:09 → LGA 08:25DL 5737 · flown by Republic 1h 52m New York LGA 10:17 → RSW 13:25DL 379 7h 16m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → IND 10:30 → DTW 11:45DL 4875 · flown by Endeavor 2h 43m Detroit DTW 14:28 → RSW 17:22DL 1225 6h 52m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → IND 07:05 → EWR 09:11UA 3567 · flown by Republic 2h 45m Newark EWR 11:56 → RSW 15:05UA 1810 8h 00m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153 6h 16m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → IND 07:18 → ORD 07:39UA 3483 · flown by Republic 1h 18m Chicago ORD 08:57 → RSW 12:56UA 1036 5h 38m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → IND 07:00 → PHL 08:55AA 2847 2h 24m Philadelphia PHL 11:19 → RSW 14:21AA 507 7h 21m 98% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → IND 20:00 → ATL 21:50DL 3120 50m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → RSW 00:23 +1DL 1217 4h 23m 71% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON