tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1193 at 12:35, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1193 Southwest IND 12:35 SAN 13:56 24% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 3997 · flown by Mesa 56m Dulles IAD 08:15 → SAN 10:38UA 1930 8h 03m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757 1h 02m Minneapolis MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38DL 2121 6h 38m 93% 80%
SouthwestDetails → IND 06:15 → DEN 07:03WN 2787 1h 56m Denver DEN 08:59 → SAN 10:18WN 1754 7h 03m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → SAN 11:36DL 843 8h 41m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 13m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:55 → SLC 09:26DL 2137 1h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 7h 13m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → IND 07:18 → ORD 07:39UA 3483 · flown by Republic 1h 07m Chicago ORD 08:46 → SAN 11:21UA 660 7h 03m 92% 73%
UnitedDetails → IND 08:00 → DEN 08:51UA 1607 2h 24m Denver DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940 7h 41m 99% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IND 19:59 → SFO 21:47UA 2799 1h 07m San Francisco SFO 22:54 → SAN 00:50 +1UA 1389 7h 51m 69% 44%
AlaskaDetails → IND 17:19 → SEA 19:09AS 500 58m Seattle SEA 20:07 → SAN 22:55AS 254 8h 36m 69% 41%
UnitedDetails → IND 16:05 → EWR 18:33UA 3667 · flown by Republic 49m Newark EWR 19:22 → SAN 22:02UA 1102 8h 57m 66% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON