Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 625 Alaska Flight history →	IND 07:04	SEA 08:52	18%	3%	0.9%	81%
AS 500 Alaska Flight history →	IND 17:19	SEA 19:09	28%	9%	1.3%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	6h 59m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	9h 18m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	IND 07:25 → AUS 09:03DL 4015 · flown by SkyWest	2h 11m Austin	AUS 11:14 → SEA 13:45DL 1684	9h 20m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	IND 06:45 → BOS 09:10DL 5631 · flown by Republic	2h 19m Boston	BOS 11:29 → SEA 14:50DL 332	11h 05m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	10h 55m	99%	81%
United Details →	IND 10:11 → IAD 11:55UA 3709 · flown by Republic	1h 05m Dulles	IAD 13:00 → SEA 15:32UA 1824	8h 21m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	IND 07:47 → DTW 09:03DL 4897 · flown by Endeavor	3h 26m Detroit	DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728	9h 42m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	IND 07:55 → SLC 09:26DL 2137	2h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	7h 54m	99%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IND 19:59 → SFO 21:47UA 2799	58m San Francisco	SFO 22:45 → SEA 01:15 +1UA 5579 · flown by SkyWest	8h 16m	67%	45%
American Details →	IND 16:49 → PHL 18:49AA 5592 · flown by PSA	57m Philadelphia	PHL 19:46 → SEA 22:38AA 1823	8h 49m	73%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON