tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Southwest via Denver, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 46% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 500 United Flight history → IND 06:00 SFO 07:42 11% 3% 0.6% 84%
UA 2799 United Flight history → IND 19:59 SFO 21:47 33% 11% 0.9% 22%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 6210 · flown by Mesa 2h 23m Dulles IAD 09:42 → SFO 12:42UA 1773 10h 07m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 3997 · flown by Mesa 1h 16m Dulles IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147 8h 44m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → IND 10:11 → IAD 11:55UA 3709 · flown by Republic 2h 56m Dulles IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 10h 27m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757 3h 11m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 9h 09m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → IND 06:45 → BOS 09:10DL 5631 · flown by Republic 1h 55m Boston BOS 11:05 → SFO 14:34DL 860 10h 49m 100% 77%
AmericanDetails → IND 07:10 → JFK 09:29AA 4631 · flown by Republic 1h 00m New York JFK 10:29 → SFO 13:54AA 149 9h 44m 95% 77%
DeltaDetails → IND 12:18 → MSP 13:04DL 2456 2h 03m Minneapolis MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756 7h 54m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → IND 08:05 → ATL 09:41DL 1901 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750 9h 45m 100% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → IND 17:19 → SEA 19:09AS 500 51m Seattle SEA 20:00 → SFO 22:09AS 619 7h 50m 59% 31%
UnitedDetails → IND 20:10 → ORD 20:37UA 3657 · flown by Republic 58m Chicago ORD 21:35 → SFO 00:32 +1UA 2106 7h 22m 64% 29%
AmericanDetails → IND 17:44 → DFW 19:18AA 2456 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:15 → SFO 22:16AA 2522 7h 32m 46% 21%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON