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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Kahului on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → ITO 06:00 → HNL 06:54AS 1001 2h 24m Honolulu HNL 09:18 → OGG 10:12AS 1056 4h 12m 99% 85%
AlaskaDetails → ITO 15:45 → HNL 16:39AS 1071 2h 52m Honolulu HNL 19:31 → OGG 20:25AS 1196 4h 40m 100% 82%
AlaskaDetails → ITO 16:47 → HNL 17:40AS 1081 3h 21m Honolulu HNL 21:01 → OGG 21:55AS 1206 5h 08m 100% 82%
AlaskaDetails → ITO 13:59 → HNL 14:54AS 1051 3h 33m Honolulu HNL 18:27 → OGG 19:08AS 1186 5h 09m 99% 79%
AlaskaDetails → ITO 12:38 → HNL 13:47AS 1041 3h 55m Honolulu HNL 17:42 → OGG 18:23AS 1176 5h 45m 100% 78%
AlaskaDetails → ITO 11:27 → HNL 12:22AS 1031 3h 43m Honolulu HNL 16:05 → OGG 16:58AS 1436 5h 31m 100% 78%
AlaskaDetails → ITO 09:26 → HNL 10:20AS 1021 2h 17m Honolulu HNL 12:37 → OGG 13:31AS 1096 4h 05m 99% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → ITO 14:59 → HNL 15:55AS 1061 48m Honolulu HNL 16:43 → OGG 17:24AS 1156 2h 25m 59% 45%
AlaskaDetails → ITO 16:47 → HNL 17:40AS 1081 47m Honolulu HNL 18:27 → OGG 19:08AS 1186 2h 21m 56% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON