tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 317 at 08:35, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 317 Delta Flight history → JAC 08:35 ATL 14:15 22% 7% 0.9% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 2 h ahead of Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40UA 1978 1h 31m Denver DEN 10:11 → ATL 15:23UA 2806 6h 23m 93% 76%
DeltaDetails → JAC 07:40 → SLC 08:50DL 4022 · flown by SkyWest 2h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 11:00 → ATL 16:44DL 885 7h 04m 97% 73%
DeltaDetails → JAC 11:28 → SLC 12:38DL 4470 · flown by SkyWest 2h 53m Salt Lake City SLC 15:31 → ATL 21:25DL 875 7h 57m 100% 68%
DeltaDetails → JAC 13:15 → SLC 14:22DL 2282 3h 33m Salt Lake City SLC 17:55 → ATL 23:58DL 905 8h 43m 96% 63%
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:30 → ORD 11:40UA 2032 2h 15m Chicago ORD 13:55 → ATL 17:10UA 356 7h 40m 88% 61%
UnitedDetails → JAC 10:35 → DEN 12:30UA 5543 · flown by SkyWest 56m Denver DEN 13:26 → ATL 18:30UA 1671 5h 55m 81% 56%
UnitedDetails → JAC 13:42 → DEN 15:18UA 1717 2h 50m Denver DEN 18:08 → ATL 23:14UA 248 7h 32m 96% 56%
AmericanDetails → JAC 11:42 → DFW 15:27AA 3052 2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:38 → ATL 20:56AA 3212 7h 14m 94% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON