Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 5543 at 10:35 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–43%.

Safest bet that day UA 5543 JAC 10:35 → DEN 12:30 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 2132 JAC 16:35 → DEN 18:24 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5543 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	JAC 10:35	DEN 12:30	14%	6%	1.0%	92%
UA 1978 United Flight history →	JAC 07:00	DEN 08:40	15%	6%	1.5%	87%
UA 1717 United Flight history →	JAC 13:42	DEN 15:18	28%	9%	0.9%	80%
UA 2791 United Flight history →	JAC 14:44	DEN 16:21	39%	13%	1.8%	65%
UA 2132 United	JAC 16:35	DEN 18:24	43%	13%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON