tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 2 h ahead of Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40UA 1978 1h 29m Denver DEN 10:09 → EWR 16:10UA 2381 7h 10m 92% 64%
DeltaDetails → JAC 07:40 → SLC 08:50DL 4022 · flown by SkyWest 1h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033 7h 09m 93% 63%
UnitedDetails → JAC 13:42 → DEN 15:18UA 1717 3h 59m Denver DEN 19:17 → EWR 01:09 +1UA 2093 9h 27m 98% 56%
DeltaDetails → JAC 08:35 → ATL 14:15DL 317 1h 18m Atlanta ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340 7h 19m 87% 54%
AmericanDetails → JAC 11:42 → DFW 15:27AA 3052 3h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:29 → EWR 23:12AA 618 9h 30m 97% 53%
UnitedDetails → JAC 10:35 → DEN 12:30UA 5543 · flown by SkyWest 3h 05m Denver DEN 15:35 → EWR 21:29UA 1715 8h 54m 98% 52%
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:57 → LAX 09:23UA 1431 1h 52m Los Angeles LAX 11:15 → EWR 19:30UA 1981 9h 33m 86% 49%
AmericanDetails → JAC 10:52 → CLT 16:50AA 1049 3h 17m Charlotte CLT 20:07 → EWR 22:00AA 2794 9h 08m 96% 48%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:57 → LAX 09:23UA 1431 57m Los Angeles LAX 10:20 → EWR 19:04UA 2127 9h 07m 74% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON