tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 44% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h ahead of Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40UA 1978 2h 54m Denver DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599 7h 09m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:57 → LAX 09:23UA 1431 3h 35m Los Angeles LAX 12:58 → IAH 18:23UA 1084 9h 26m 91% 70%
DeltaDetails → JAC 08:35 → ATL 14:15DL 317 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 16:23 → IAH 17:35DL 1131 8h 00m 95% 66%
DeltaDetails → JAC 11:28 → SLC 12:38DL 4470 · flown by SkyWest 1h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 13:45 → IAH 17:53DL 1299 5h 25m 91% 65%
UnitedDetails → JAC 10:35 → DEN 12:30UA 5543 · flown by SkyWest 3h 05m Denver DEN 15:35 → IAH 19:10UA 489 7h 35m 98% 64%
DeltaDetails → JAC 13:15 → SLC 14:22DL 2282 3h 23m Salt Lake City SLC 17:45 → IAH 21:50DL 2514 7h 35m 96% 62%
AmericanDetails → JAC 10:52 → CLT 16:50AA 1049 1h 51m Charlotte CLT 18:41 → IAH 20:33AA 2935 8h 41m 89% 60%
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:30 → ORD 11:40UA 2032 1h 00m Chicago ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:39UA 1448 7h 09m 77% 57%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → JAC 13:42 → DEN 15:18UA 1717 1h 02m Denver DEN 16:20 → IAH 19:57UA 588 5h 15m 74% 44%
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:57 → LAX 09:23UA 1431 47m Los Angeles LAX 10:10 → IAH 15:40UA 277 6h 43m 44% 36%
UnitedDetails → JAC 14:44 → DEN 16:21UA 2791 54m Denver DEN 17:15 → IAH 20:40UA 1587 4h 56m 55% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON