Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2032 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 38–50%.

Safest bet that day UA 2032 JAC 07:30 → ORD 11:40 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 1448 JAC 15:41 → ORD 19:43 · 50% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2032 United Flight history →	JAC 07:30	ORD 11:40	22%	11%	1.9%	84%
UA 2458 United	JAC 12:13	ORD 16:14	38%	17%	2.8%	no record
AA 1449 American	JAC 13:48	ORD 17:50	46%	21%	1.5%	no record
AA 1448 American	JAC 15:41	ORD 19:43	50%	26%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON