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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:40, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching San Diego on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JAC 07:40 → SLC 08:50DL 4022 · flown by SkyWest 2h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 5h 28m 97% 70%
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40UA 1978 2h 35m Denver DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940 6h 41m 97% 70%
UnitedDetails → JAC 10:35 → DEN 12:30UA 5543 · flown by SkyWest 3h 25m Denver DEN 15:55 → SAN 17:20UA 1281 7h 45m 99% 63%
DeltaDetails → JAC 11:28 → SLC 12:38DL 4470 · flown by SkyWest 2h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 15:00 → SAN 15:56DL 1210 5h 28m 95% 61%
DeltaDetails → JAC 13:15 → SLC 14:22DL 2282 2h 48m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → SAN 18:06DL 1252 5h 51m 96% 57%
UnitedDetails → JAC 14:44 → DEN 16:21UA 2791 2h 59m Denver DEN 19:20 → SAN 20:46UA 540 7h 02m 92% 53%
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:57 → LAX 09:23UA 1431 1h 09m Los Angeles LAX 10:32 → SAN 11:29UA 1068 4h 32m 77% 49%
AmericanDetails → JAC 11:42 → DFW 15:27AA 3052 2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:50 → SAN 18:57AA 1789 8h 15m 94% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON