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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:40, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Seattle on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 1 h behind Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JAC 07:40 → SLC 08:50DL 4022 · flown by SkyWest 2h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 6h 09m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40UA 1978 2h 51m Denver DEN 11:31 → SEA 13:35UA 2058 7h 35m 98% 71%
DeltaDetails → JAC 11:28 → SLC 12:38DL 4470 · flown by SkyWest 2h 37m Salt Lake City SLC 15:15 → SEA 16:28DL 2817 6h 00m 100% 65%
UnitedDetails → JAC 10:35 → DEN 12:30UA 5543 · flown by SkyWest 1h 32m Denver DEN 14:02 → SEA 15:53UA 2833 6h 18m 94% 59%
DeltaDetails → JAC 13:15 → SLC 14:22DL 2282 2h 58m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871 6h 18m 96% 57%
UnitedDetails → JAC 13:42 → DEN 15:18UA 1717 3h 53m Denver DEN 19:11 → SEA 21:00UA 2767 8h 18m 98% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON