tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 2241 at 17:32, with a 34% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2241 United JAC 17:32 SFO 18:53 34% 17% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40UA 1978 2h 41m Denver DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 7h 04m 97% 71%
DeltaDetails → JAC 07:40 → SLC 08:50DL 4022 · flown by SkyWest 2h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902 5h 23m 97% 68%
UnitedDetails → JAC 10:35 → DEN 12:30UA 5543 · flown by SkyWest 3h 17m Denver DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633 7h 55m 99% 64%
DeltaDetails → JAC 11:28 → SLC 12:38DL 4470 · flown by SkyWest 2h 32m Salt Lake City SLC 15:10 → SFO 16:12DL 1088 5h 44m 97% 63%
AmericanDetails → JAC 14:00 → LAX 15:24AA 6471 · flown by SkyWest 2h 15m Los Angeles LAX 17:39 → SFO 19:18AA 3138 6h 18m 97% 62%
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:57 → LAX 09:23UA 1431 2h 29m Los Angeles LAX 11:52 → SFO 13:28UA 1245 6h 31m 91% 61%
UnitedDetails → JAC 13:42 → DEN 15:18UA 1717 2h 36m Denver DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007 6h 58m 96% 54%
UnitedDetails → JAC 14:44 → DEN 16:21UA 2791 3h 04m Denver DEN 19:25 → SFO 21:11UA 1389 7h 27m 92% 46%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → JAC 13:15 → SLC 14:22DL 2282 48m Salt Lake City SLC 15:10 → SFO 16:12DL 1088 3h 57m 74% 48%
AmericanDetails → JAC 11:42 → DFW 15:27AA 3052 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:17 → SFO 17:59AA 2810 7h 17m 68% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON