Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 4470 at 11:28 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 4470 JAC 11:28 → SLC 12:38 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 509 JAC 17:52 → SLC 18:55 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4470 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	JAC 11:28	SLC 12:38	14%	6%	0.9%	95%
DL 4022 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	JAC 07:40	SLC 08:50	17%	7%	2.5%	91%
DL 2282 Delta Flight history →	JAC 13:15	SLC 14:22	21%	6%	0.7%	88%
DL 509 Delta	JAC 17:52	SLC 18:55	31%	9%	2.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON