Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2722 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–42%.

Safest bet that day DL 2722 JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 1549 JAX 19:40 → ATL 21:07 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2722 Delta Flight history →	JAX 05:30	ATL 06:42	5%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 2328 Delta Flight history →	JAX 09:41	ATL 10:54	8%	4%	0.8%	91%
DL 2569 Delta Flight history →	JAX 08:17	ATL 09:34	8%	3%	0.8%	91%
DL 2450 Delta Flight history →	JAX 07:00	ATL 08:15	9%	3%	0.8%	92%
DL 2326 Delta Flight history →	JAX 10:41	ATL 11:54	10%	4%	0.8%	89%
DL 2923 Delta Flight history →	JAX 13:05	ATL 14:15	16%	3%	0.8%	85%
DL 3024 Delta Flight history →	JAX 14:50	ATL 16:06	17%	4%	0.8%	82%
DL 2189 Delta Flight history →	JAX 20:18	ATL 21:42	18%	6%	0.9%	70%
DL 2990 Delta Flight history →	JAX 16:14	ATL 17:32	20%	5%	0.9%	80%
DL 2440 Delta Flight history →	JAX 18:54	ATL 20:10	22%	5%	1.0%	94%worse than usual
DL 2720 Delta Flight history →	JAX 17:32	ATL 18:49	23%	5%	0.9%	79%
F9 1549 Frontier Flight history →	JAX 19:40	ATL 21:07	42%	18%	1.3%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON